We get a double feature on Monday Night Football in Week 7, with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Arizona Cardinals in the 9 p.m. ET kickoff.
Los Angeles is a short road favorite for its second straight road game after improving to 3-2 SU last Sunday. Arizona limps home after a one-sided squash at Green Bay in Week 6 with a slew of injuries on both sides of the football.
I give you my early Chargers vs.Cardinals predictions and best NFL picks for October 21.
Chargers vs Cardinals predictions
Early spread leanLos Angeles -2.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Chargers made the best of their bye in Week 5 and took down Denver last weekend with a solid showing on both sides of the football.
Los Angeles continued to play smothering defense but also posted its best offensive output with 23 points on 350 yards versus an underrated Broncos defense. The Chargers also left points on the table, going 1 for 3 inside the red zone.
Quarterback Justin Herbert, who has been slowed by injuries since training camp, threw for 237 yards and complemented the run-heavy playbook which keeps grinding out gains.
Los Angeles gets a much easier opponent on defense in Week 7. The Arizona Cardinals sit near the bottom of most defensive measurements and could be missing starters at all three levels this Monday, with DT Bilal Nichols, LB Kyzir White, and DB Sean Murphy-Bunting all leaving last weekend with injuries.
Personally, I opted for the L.A. moneyline (-152 at FanDuel) rather than laying the -2.5, given the Bolts offense is hot and cold and there are also injuries to the Chargers secondary.
Early Over/Under leanUnder 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Cardinals offense looked like it might keep this team competitive early on this season, posting a collective 69 points in the opening two games. Since then, Arizona has scored a total of just 64 points in the previous four outings and ranks 25th in EPA per play since Week 3.
A big piece of that scoring attack could be out for Week 7 with star rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. in concussion protocol, however, the extra day does help get him clear for Week 7.
With or without Harrison, Arizona is up against a tough task. The Chargers defense sits No. 2 in EPA allowed per play, No. 3 in success rate allowed, and No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at FTN.
Working in conjunction with the stop unit is a methodical pace on offense. Los Angeles is 26th in plays per game, running the sixth slowest tempo and chewing up the 11th most time of possession.
It’s all anchored in a running game taking to the turf at the third-highest rate in the land. The passing playbook is very conservative, hitting only 10 completions of 20 or more yards with Hebert boasting the ninth fewest air yards per completion.
Los Angeles has played Under the total in four of its first five games and this 43.5-point number seems too tall considering the Bolts’ pace and the Cardinals’ offensive woes.
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In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
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