The biggest total on the Week 3 NFL odds board is a showdown on Sunday afternoon between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings. Despite high-powered offenses, both teams have gotten off to a 0-2 start due to defenses getting torched.
With that in mind, the Over/Under for this game is sitting at a whopping 54, six points higher than the second-highest total of the week. Is it worth chasing the steam on that number or is there another angle to consider? I let you know with my best free Chargers vs. Vikings free NFL picks and predictions for September 24.
Chargers vs Vikings odds
Chargers vs Vikings predictions
If you were thinking about playing the Over on the total, hopefully you bet it as soon as it hit the board because it was immediately hammered, resulting in the line moving from 51.5 to 54. It’s easy to see why since both teams have looked explosive on offense while struggling on the other side of the ball.
The Chargers attack was really expected to take off this season after dumping offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s dink-and-dunk offense in favor of Kellen Moore’s downfield system.
While they surprisingly didn’t throw much in Week 1, they didn’t need to since they trampled Miami for 233 yards on the ground. They showcased their passing game in Week 2 with Justin Herbert throwing for 305 yards, but lost 27-24 to the Titans in overtime. L.A.’s defense has been getting shredded however and ranks dead-last in the NFL in dropback EPA.
That’s bad news against a Vikings offense that has been heavily reliant on Kirk Cousins and its aerial attack. Cousins has completed 72.7% of his passes for 708 yards through two weeks and with the Vikes unable to get anything on the ground, expect another heavy dose of the Cousins to Justin Jefferson connection on Saturday.
Like the Bolts, the Vikes have also been awful on defense and are coming off a contest where they surrendered 259 rushing yards and 34 points to the Eagles. Minnesota’s secondary hasn’t been exposed yet this season but it’s a ragtag group that was burned last year.
While I loved the Over when it opened, this number is a bit too rich for me right now. However, with this game also projected to be very close, I like the value of backing both sides to score at least 25 points. These teams have played in plenty of close contests over the last few years and a back-and-forth shootout should hit this number while paying out at almost +200.
My best bet: Both teams to score 25+ points – Yes (+195 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Chargers vs Vikings same-game parlay
BTTS 25+ points – Yes (+195)Cousins Over 288.5 passing yards (-110)Kelley anytime touchdown (-120)
+525 at bet365
This is a big number for Cousins but he has thrown for at least 340 yards in back-to-back games and Minnesota’s inability to run the ball should mean plenty of passing for him again. The Bolts surrendered 466 passing yards to Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1 before allowing Ryan Tannehill to complete 83% of his passes for 246 yards last week.
The Vikings were gashed on the ground by the Eagles in Week 2. While they limited Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White to 39 yards on 17 carries in Week 1, White’s rush yards over expected was at -38 according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers love to use their running backs in the red zone, and while Austin Ekeler is banged up and trending towards sitting out, Joshua Kelley will fill in admirably when it comes to goal-line touches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users30% profit boost on one anytime TD parlay! Claim Now
All Users50% profit boost on one Sunday NFL bet! Claim Now
All Users25% profit boost on one first TD scorer bet! Claim Now
Iowa Users OnlyJustin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards (was -120, NOW +150)! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Chargers vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
This total has ticked up 2.5 points from the opening number of 51.5 but the spread has also seen movement. The Chargers opened as slim 1-point road favorites but that line has jumped the fence and now favors the Vikings at -1.
The Bolts opened their year with a pair of close defeats, losing to the Dolphins by two points in their season opener before overtime to the Titans last week. They’ve had a tough time winning close contests in recent years and while coach Brandon Staley is shouldering much of the blame, Herbert also needs to make better decisions in crunch time.
The Vikings lost a close contest to the Bucs as 4-point home faves in Week 1. They are coming off a showdown against the Eagles where they lost but managed to get a push as 6-point underdogs. Turnovers have been killing Minnesota, with the Vikings already losing six fumbles.
